Cool10191, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
It was in May of 1859 in Chicago that the Republican Party nominated Abraham Lincoln, a one-term Congressman to be their presidential candidate. He was just the second Republican to run for president, the first was John C. Fremont. Lincoln snagged the nomination from several more promanitanely known candidates like New York governor William Seward. As a dark horse candidate, he ended up beating his long-time Illinois Democrat adversary, Stephen Douglas and a host of other presidential contenders to become the 16th president.
Back in August of 2018 I wrote: It’s 20/20 Trump in 2020. Now that he is a Floridian it adds a whole new dimension to the headline: “Florida Man…” I have never been one to make predictions, particular political outcomes involving the intelligence or intent of the voting American. But with Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis as possible candidates we have just added another joker into the presidential political deck. It was only a matter of time. Florida is too large a state for its lunacy to be contained to a peninsula dangling off the southeast coast.
I am not the gambling type to run out and place a bet on any sort of game of chance. The reason I would never go beyond speculation, particularly on a political outcome, is because there are so many unsuspecting people ready to hit on any colorful looking bait put in front of them. Particularly with DeSantis starting to chum up the social waters with one-sided issues. Baseless conspiracy theories have always been around but they are now the creed of the day. As P.T. Barnum said so “many people are gullible, and we can expect this to continue.” DeSantis is like Orson Welles in War of the Worlds. Only he is creating a “woke” Armageddon invasion instead of Martians from outer space. DeSantis is spewing social frenzy instead of some alien death ray. He has produced political panic and has both sides running from the end of the world as they perceive it. It is like two dogs chasing the same tail in different directions.
“All voting is a sort of gaming, like checkers or backgammon, with a slight moral tinge to it, a playing with right and wrong, with moral questions.”
On the Duty of Civil Disobedience, Henry David Thoreau
Although I did not wager any money on the 2020 election, it did appear to many that Trump was the odds on favorite against Joe Biden. Unlike, Trump who looked like he would go from wire-to-wire, Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, came from way in the back as an 80-1 odds on favorite to win. It was an amazing race. Watching Rich Strike move up through the pack, a dark horse running down the leaders. Unfortunately for the country, Trump and his followers could not invision “45” being run down. To many, it was obvious that the only way Old Slow Joe could win was if the election was rigged–or just outright stolen.
I don’t think the election was stolen. The reason has more to do with the theory of large numbers, which in my non-mathematical mind explains several events. The theory, according to learning-theories.com, “states that the greater number of times an event is carried out in real life (in this case people going to the polls to vote) the closer the real-life results will compare to the statistical or mathematically proven results.” Simply put, when 150 million plus people vote, we realize that there are more Democrats or non-Republicans voters than there are Republicans. The GOP comes up short. Hence, the great unequalizer: The Electoral College to the GOP rescue.
The 2020 election was a real wake up call for the GOP. Since 2000 they have lost all but one of the popular vote in Presidential elections. They do however, manage to squeak out Electoral College victories. When nearly 67 percent of eligible voters vote, we realize that the theory of large numbers dooms them. Hence, the cry of stolen election: the need to control the judiciary branch, Gerrymandering, and enacting voting laws to control and restrict voter turn out to around 45 percent. This evens out supposedly left-leaning the playing field.
When scientists complete research studies, they make decisions about how many people will be in the study. This is an important decision because small sample sizes can greatly skew results due to the presence of anomalies. The larger the sample size, the more the results will reflect the true nature of the population that is being studied.
learning-theories.com
But every now and then a dark horse, a candidate, like Derby winner Rich Strike comes a long, a horse that runs the field to win it all. It is strange how in sports we can accept the “Cinderella” team the underdog, the dark horse that comes in and takes it all. In the 1980 Winter Olympics America, and the world, watched as a group of college kids and amatures beat a professional Soviet Union hockey team in a game that was later called “The Miracle on Ice.” The Soviet hockey team had won four Olympic Gold Medals beginning in 1964. The last time this team lost an Olympic hockey game was in 1968. To many it was a miracle; but sometimes the longshot pays off big. Despite the game being played in America, nobody claimed the USA’s 4-3 victory was rigged.
We always have had long-shot presidential candidates, too. Every election has at least one or two. Most never make it out of the primaries and past the clubhouse turn. However, there have been several dark horse candidates that won the presidency. The first was James K. Polk who upset The Great Compromiser, Henry Clay, in the 1844 election. There have been others.
Dark Horse Presidents
- James K. Polk 1844
- Franklin Pierce 1852
- Abraham Lincoln 1860
- Rutherford B Hayes 1876
- James Garfield 1880
- Warren G. Harding 1920
- Harry S Truman 1948
- Jimmy Carter 1976
- Barack Obama 2008
- Donald Trump. 2016
Wikimedia Commons
A side note to the list, and not a real pleasant one is that two of the dark horses were assassinated: Lincoln and Garfield and a third, Harding, died in office from a heart attack. Another was impeached–twice. And as of now, Polk, Pierce, Hayes, Carter and Trump were all one-term presidents.
It would seem to me that it is even money that both Trump and Biden will both be one-term presidents simply because of their ages. Trump is 75 and Biden is 79. Both of these old over-the-hill Plugs are way past their prime racing years. Granted, the issue of either of them running is not settled. It could become, literally and figuratively, a question of them simply making the walk to the starting gate let alone actually run in a race.
In 2016 there were crowded fields in both parties primaries. According to an ESPN article from August 2016, Hillary Clinton was coming off at 1-1, Jeb Bush 7-2, Bernie Sanders at 12-1 and Ben Carson as the long shot at 100-1. At the time Joe Biden was a 14-1 odds on favorite to win the 2016 election. Trump was considered a long shot. However, some may argue Donald Trump is never a long shot despite coming in at 14-1, like Old Slow Joe in the 2016 election.
There is a possibility that the 2024 election could be a repeat of the 2016 primary elections–a crowded field loaded with dark horses. And it could be a messy, muddy race. The 2016 primaries, particularly the Republican party’s looked more like some sort televised professional wrestling match with candidates smashing each other over the head with folding chairs and then being tossed over the top rope like somebody emptying a garbage can over their fence and into their neighbor’s backyard: in broad daylight.
A real GOP donnybrook primary could pit, Trump ensconced in his Palm Beach Mar-a-Lago citadel against two other Floridians: Governor Ron DeSantis and a real dark horse, one who is so dark he is dark matter, Senator Rick Scott.
If we look to P.T. Barnum for wit and wisdom we can find some possible descriptions for their campaigns. Trump’s could be that “More persons, on the whole are humbugged (that is bombarded with deception, deceived for the advantage of others) by believing nothing than by believing too much.”
Harvard Library.Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Trump is all about the humbug. Trump has a lot to say. But what he says is like drinking a Diet Coke with a bag of Doritos and a Snickers bar for breakfast. It tastes good and will fill you up–with empty calories. There is plenty there but nothing of any nutritional value. It certainly is not the “Breakfast of Champions.” As long as Trump is around our intake of empty rhetoric will just bloat our minds with empty ideas: sweet to the brain but void of substance. The more he dishes out the more America wants. Trump’s rhetoric keeps America on some sort of sweet and sour sugar high. He fogs the brain. It is like when Moe of The Three Stooges asked Curly what was the matter and Curly replies, “I am trying to think but nothing is happening.”
There’s no way to sugarcoat the truth–Americans are eating more sugar than ever before. Researchers from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill determined that, on average, Americans are consuming 83 more calories per day from caloric sweeteners than they did in 1977. And those extra 83 calories a day turn into a whopping 2,490 calories per month.
NorishWebMD.com
DeSantis on the other hand is more like “without promotion something terrible happens, nothing.” For the longest time the GOP was the party of limited government. It took Thoreau’s concept “that government is best which governs least.” DeSantis legislative self-promotion style proves that a lot of ideas go from debatable to terrible. He is in some sort of pre-presidential race with the master self-promoter, Trump and Governor Greg Abbott of Texas. DeSantis’ is in a right-wing downwind race with Abbott. It is a promotional campaign gone goony. They both seem to be at their best pushing vindictive policies. One clogs the border crossing with trucks backed up for miles causing Texas, businesses and the country billions of dollars. DeSantis meanwhile is chasing Tinkerbell around the Magic Kingdom. Both states probably would be better off if their governors just did nothing. Basically they prove what Thoreau said that “it is the fault of the government itself that the remedy is worse than the evil. It makes it worse.”
Then there is Rick Scott. He is the real Flori-duh man. A dark horse. He falls into the category: “You know, I had rather be laughed at than not noticed at all.” Somehow he keeps getting re-elected in Florida. He is a curious political phenomenon and proves what Barnum said that “Nobody ever lost a dollar (or an election) by underestimating the taste of the American public.” In this case the Florida voter.
Scott is like dark matter. Scientist really do not know what it is. And I am not sure Florida voters know what Scott really is either. According to spaceplace.nasa.gov, “Dark matter is stuff in space that has gravity, but it is unlike anything scientists have ever seen before.” That sort of explains Scott’s rise to power in Florida. He is an unknowing political game of 20 Questions: Is he corporate billionaire; a possible CEO Medicare fraudster; a sentient being; or leader of the growing lunatic fringe?
Astronomy.com says that “most astronomers say the majority of the cosmos consists of dark matter and dark energy… Dark matter works like an attractive force.” This may explain how Scott keeps getting re-elected. The dark energy of the universe pulls in unsuspecting voters. Conversely, Scott, like dark matter, “doesn’t reflect, absorb or emit light” so it might be tough to notice him. Until he becomes president.
Forget about a dark horse winning the next presidential election. Without a doubt we will probably elect somebody who is more dark matter than dark hours. Especially if we have two, possibly three, Floridia men running for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2024. We will then learn that there is a deeper meaning to the headline: Florida man…
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/u-s-hockey-team-makes-miracle-on-ice
mystoryorhistory 
Even as a foreigner, this was a fantastic read.
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